My comment was too long for Joost’s site; so i pasted it here:
The article: https://joost.blog/cms-market-share-a-numbers-analysis/
Totally agreed with Mario. The non-tech user search for a solution, not a CMS. In 13 years making websites, 95% of my customers never heard of WordPress. I think your forecast is way to polite. My expectation is that the growth of WordPress will be lower (or stops) and the closed CMS grow more exponential then now; like double or triple.
Why do i think that? For example Shopify and Squarespace are only available in a few languages. Bring that number up; throw in some local marketing dollars and these are the Amazons that continue will crash the market. Price is no issue, cause also WordPress needs some (premium/WooCommerce) licences and in most cases a paid maintenance plan for the agency. Also be aware that every local market has it’s own closed CMS products; like Lightspeed, webnode, webhero,…. Some are bigger then we think cause they sell ‘solutions’. I remember an article on wptaverns where someone went to a big e-commerce conference and never once heard the term ‘woocommerce’ over there, mostly Shopify.
The question is: what can we (WordPress) do about this?
Paid advertising is out of the question. There’s this total branding mismatch that you’re not allowed to fix. I’ll mention the solution here again: wordpress.com = wp.com.
The next question: how can we reach those massive basic users?
Only one channel left: via the community, although we will miss a large chunk of potential ‘clients’.
The community can give people the tools (powerpoints, downloads, statistics, etc) that people can use to go speak on entrepeneur evenings, local network evenings, so on. Wp.org can create landingpages for ‘solutions’: let’s say Case-pages for a school. Remember to make this easy to copy/translate over the Rosetta sites.
And at last, multilingual out of the box!!!
Again, i find it hilarious that phase 3 (multi editing + collboration) is before phase 4 (multilangual). Cause multilangual is a ‘solution’ for a lot of people and that will have a bigger impact then phase 3. And users search solutions, right.
So maybe -as Head of Marketing- you can bump extra for a faster arrival of multilangual in core.